Friday, October 15, 2004It tastes like Chicken.Clock management at it's best. That Moneyline would have been nice, but a win is a win. I'll be betting on Virginia this weekend against FSU, win or lose I'll be waiting for the UVA/Miami matchup like a recently adopted orphan waiting for Christmas. TCU + 7 111 to win 100 posted @ 03:11 AM CST [link] Thursday, October 14, 2004BoneEffing Eff. Louisville +9 165 to win 150 Louisville ML +322 85 to win 274 posted @ 04:23 PM CST [link] Wednesday, October 13, 2004Miercoles GiganteOkay, I may or may not be an idiot. Last week I should have made alot of money. However, my inability to remember parlays and teasers are sucker bets cost me greatly. I'm in a hurry so I'll update the disaster of a record later. However, tomorrow's game between the Huskies of Uconn, versus the Mountain people of Backward ass land intrigues me greatly. (Have you ever been to West Virginia?, very pretty place, but frightening as all hell) The bet the opposite of the dumb people strategy I've employed for years hasn't worked as well this year as in the past. I don't know what that is due to, or if there is really enough "events" to actually prove this hypothesis with any statistical significance. Either way, we have another mother of a game tomorrow. The books will be up to their eyeballs in WVU money tomorrow. They'll probably need UConn to cover more than any other college game this year. Now the line opened at 6 and quickly moved to 7. Now what gives? The line move to 7, would make you think that the smart money is WVU. Which is true and not true. Even if I liked Uconn, at 6 I'd be willing to bet WVU at -6, because I know that by game time I can get 7.5 the other way, so it's smart. The real telling line move is the fact after the line got to 7. Everyone and their dog still "Loves" WVU. But somebody put enough money to move off the key number back to 6.5. Now when lines move from 5 to 5.5. I don't really give a flying monkey crap. because that doesn't mean that much. But when somebody moves a line off a key number when the public is all over the other side. It usually means something is up. Now books don't like to move off key numbers, as if they move it to 6.5 and everyone jumps on the WVU, then later do to adjustments somebody can get +7.5 later, they are setting themselves up for a visit from the prostate burgler. The Stanford game against Washington is a prime example. Everybody loves Stanford, line is in the -11 area. People pound Stanford all week. The books finally give in to the mass of money and move the line all the way to 14. Now ass clowns like me take the 14 and in my case 14.5 by buying a half point. And everybody wins except the Books. So in general the books avoid moving across key numbers, and 7 definitely qualifies as a key number. Not to mention the fact by some crazy twist of fate, Natasha be liking the Huskies. Now she boned me before by liking them when they played BC, and they got whacked. Now it is entirely possible she's setting me up for a pounding again. But I'll definitely take my chances. I might even smack down a few bucks on the money line if it gets up in the +240 to +250 area. But I'm looking for a +7.5. I don't know if I can get it and might have to buy the half point, but we'll see. But for now, I'm going to go ahead and make Uconn an official play at the price it would cost me to get 7.5 which -122. I hope to get it cheaper tomorrow. UCONN +7.5 183 to win 150 Donkey Punch the Man, Larry Chan posted @ 01:48 AM CST [link] |
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