Saturday, September 25, 2004EFFing EFF.Got screwed on Navy with a nice fourth and 16 conversion for a TD, should have won BC and threw in a couple of stinkers. Didn't make it home in time and missed the 6 oclock games. Real pissed about that. Well here's 7 oclock. Nev +14.5 52 to 50 New mex -6 101 to win 100 New mex ML 132 to win 50 utah st + 13.5 52 to win 50 Ariz St/Oreg st UNDER 55 167 to win 160 Go man Go, Larry Chan posted @ 06:11 PM CST [link] Army is terrible. Army’s ineptitude is killing me. Everything except the Havard/Brown over going to go to the wire. 2:30 games Iowa + 14 110 to win 100 Iowa under 39.5 107 to win 100 Penn state + 3 63 to win 60 Florida st -17 (buy ½) 180 to win 150 Texas Tech Under 62.5 165 to win 160 Arky/Bama over 50.5 63 to win 60 posted @ 02:17 PM CST [link] Retard Mini-Lotto ticket 6 Team Teaser Mmmm.Kay Here we go 62.50 to win 437.50 1 NCAA Football for Game Navy 25-September-2004 10:30 AM PST Spread -2.5 for Game 2 NCAA Football for Game Florida State 25-September-2004 12:30 PM PST Spread -11.5 for Game 3 NCAA Football for Game Temple 25-September-2004 4:00 PM PST Spread +13.5 for Game 4 NCAA Football for Game Louisiana Tech 25-September-2004 4:00 PM PST Spread +29 for Game 5 NCAA Football for Game Oregon State/Arizona State 25-September-2004 7:00 PM PST Total Points UNDER 62 for Game 6 NCAA Football for Game New Mexico 25-September-2004 5:05 PM PST Spread +0.5 for Game posted @ 05:46 AM CST [link] Bring out the Gimp! Okay kids, won a few bucks on the Mormons last night, but alas I was required to attend an event with the FMC (Future Miss Chan) and couldn’t get to a computer. I’ve been in the basement, and I had a long talk with the computer. Now that we have a couple of weeks worth of stats, I’ve put some Diesel in the generator and cranked her up. Problem is she’s spitting out all kinds of craziness. Some of her strongest plays are dead opposite some of the picks by some professional sports bettors I get information from. That makes me semi to moderately nervous. I know I’m going to regret this, and come tomorrow I’m sure I’ll have a new item on my handicapping check list that says “Don’t ever take the opposite side of betting syndicates that handicap sports for a living”. Trust me I know this. Why am I betting against two of their picks then? For one, I'm a moron, second the syndicates that I get info on have been less than impressive this year, and finally these two games look like monster traps that Vegas is begging you to bet on the side the syndicates are betting. Something has to give and I’m sure it will be my bankroll. Going for the man’s throat today so here we go with the early games. All lines from pinnacle. Probably a trap, but my numbers have BC getting scary Yards per Carry BC -2 63 to win 60 I’m really hoping for a track meet here, stats say hell yes, me having Bobby Ross flash backs says oh no. Uconn/Army over 58 133.50 to win 125.00 If you get shut out by the Aggies, you are not good, trust me on this. Think altitude may catch up with the Rebs in the 2nd so … Ole Miss Money Line 1st Half 132 to win 100 Something smells kind of funny on this one, but the computer says “Go man Go” Louisville -8 106 to win 100 Scared of the Look ahead on this one, as Navy has the Fly Boys up next, but Vandy should have trouble with Navy’s rushing attack. Navy -8.5 103 to win 100 Bought this one when the line came out, but may buy it back before game time as everybody “Loves” Michigan State here. May see if I can get a 4 right before game time and go the other way Michigan State -3 105 to win 100 (Probably going to close out) Also bought this earlier in the week. Line moved my way, so I guess I’ll keep it. Harvard/Brown over 47 108 to win 100 More plays before 2:30. Good luck bitzes, Larry Chan posted @ 05:20 AM CST [link] Wednesday, September 22, 2004Smooth. Smooth like razor wire.Umm Yeah, that's what I get for playing totals. I'm starting to think that totals are the devil. If I bet the over, teams drive the field at will and take turns fumbling on their opponents 1 inch line. If I bet the under, teams fumble the ball on their own 3, the term "Pick 6" get's used alot, and teams that get 200 yards total offense score 35 points. Makes me flipping crazy. Now that being said, I should have known better. That bet was terrible for several reasons. One, betting any number over 44 (probably should be 42) in professional football is not a strategy to win in the long run, it is however a fabulous way to magically make hundred dollar bills disappear in the oven. I think the idea of betting on something not to happen is probably safer than betting on something to happen. Second, the public always prefers overs, and this was an extreme case of being on the same side as the public. Consensus numbers from the sportsbooks had the public on the over at a 64% to 69% clip. What happened to my self proclaimed sports betting canon of "Contrarianism". Went right out the window with my brain apparently. When I decided that "If Dallas and Minnesota can score that many points", then this ought to be a shootout, all hope was lost. I'm starting a new list, and 10 minutes before I make my bets for the day I'm going to sit down and pry myself into my best Shaolin meditation position and chant the items on the list over and over until I learn to stop making stupid ass betting mistakes. Maybe someday I'll have a long enought list to make a dollar or two. Todays entry on the list. 1. Do not bet a total over 44 in professional football if the public is on the over. Ever. Off to wander the earth, Larry "Kwai Chang Caine" Chan Starting Bankroll 3154.84 Monday 0-1 -74.00 Ending Bankroll 3080.84 posted @ 02:40 AM CST [link] Monday, September 20, 2004Paint Drying and The FederationI'm sad to say I wasted over two hours of my life watching that display of ineptitude. Miami's offense is horrific. Split 1-1 with the Jets over cashing and the Bungals winning but not covering. I am however excited that the Federation has already reared it's ugly head. Now I'm sure you'll regard my conspiracy theories as absolute bullshit like everyone else, but unfortunately for you that won't stop me from spouting them. Now while I would like to throw Buffalo's 65 yd pass on 4th and 18 with less than 2 minutes left for a push into the mix, I'll skip it and only add one game to the Conspiracy log this week. Let's see, Dallas is playing at home against The Browns. Line is Dallas -5.5 Dallas is winning 17 to 12 about win the game and lose against the spread (which is all that really matters right?). Cleveland has the ball deep in their own terroir with less that 15 seconds left to go. And what do you know, the Federation calls holding in the endzone for a safety. Cowboys cover. Mark it down. Monday Night Eagles/Vikings Over 48.5 74 to win 70 Starting Bankroll 3156.84 Sunday 1-1 -2 Ending Bankroll 3154.84 Good Luck, Larry Chan posted @ 03:50 AM CST [link] Sunday, September 19, 2004Back in BlackWell decided to take the show on the road last night and go to the local watering hole. Problem is their internet was down so couldn't post late games. Who cares as the only two people reading this are me and the FBI agent that is required to read it ever since I made the pipe bomb comment. Anyway, still don't have a good feel for the NFL, and can't tell if some teams are as bad as I think, and waiting to see if the G-men are going lay down to prove a point to Coughlin. Either way not going to risk much of the bankroll at this point. Cinci -5.5 52 to win 50 Jets over 46.5 55 to win 50 Good luck, Larry Chan Starting Bankroll 2895.84 Friday/Saturday 4-2-1 +261.00 Ending Bankroll 3156.84 +156.84 posted @ 11:30 AM CST [link] |
nav: Articles on Gambling Theory home archives links: Larry Chan's Discussion Forum Donbest Lines Weblog Links: Gam Blog UK Casino Gambling Blog Technorati Blogging Ecosystem THEBLOGPROJECT.COM 
|
