Saturday, September 18, 2004CrazyLines are bouncing around like Ping Pong balls. Texas Tech down 21-0, I had already started cussing and beating the dog, then Tech scores 300 unanswered on TCU. Anyway working on late games if any, but going to take a little poke at Toledo -8.5 86 to win 80. Pull up your skirt, Larry Chan posted @ 05:00 PM CST [link] Fade away bitzes Yale -5.5 210/200 Pitt +5 114/100 Texas Tech -5 118/100 Kansas +3 112/100 Florida Atlantic +3 112/100 All Lines at pinnacle. More games before 2:30 Central. Larry Chan out. posted @ 10:31 AM CST [link] How to build a pipe bomb in your oven. Yes Honey, I know you want to go out to eat. I know we've eaten Macaroni and cheese for the last six meals. Uh huh. Yes well you see I like to take hundred dollar bills and wad them up and stick them in my pants for a while, then I like to stick them in the oven with a match, some newspaper and some gasoline and set it on 450 degrees. Then I like to skip around the room with the TV on ESPN2 for oh say about 2 hours, and for some reason most of the time after this crazy ritual when I open the oven the hundred dollar bills are gone. posted @ 08:38 AM CST [link] Friday, September 17, 2004Thursday night FootballI really think coach Calhoun has as strong game plan tonight to stop Boston College. Okafor and Gordon should score alot. Umm Yeah. If you want to read my real write here is the link at my newly created discussion board Write up Either way go Huskies. UCONN + 8 105 to win 100 (got it earlier this week, still like it at 7.5 or 7) posted @ 05:21 PM CST [link] Thursday, September 16, 2004Happy HolidaysThe festive Holiday season in the Chan household has started. And by Holiday season I mean College Football. Most people consider the "Holidays", Thanksgiving through the New Year. Well for me it runs from say September 4th to January 4th. I love me some football. And so as the days grow shorter, and I get fatter, the boys of fall clash on the gridiron in search of glory. There is no greater glory than scoring a meaningless backdoor touchdown on the second stringers with less than a minute to play to lose by only 24. Thank you Charles McNeil for your brilliant invention; best known as the point spread. I'm still deep into the research for this weekends games, and will have some conclusions on Friday, but just wanted to recap how the season has started out. Now I've always been somewhat of a contrarian bettor. For you gambling greenhorns that means if everybody and their dog loves Notre Dame to destroy Navy and the spread is ONLY 13 points. There is a good chance I'll look into betting on Navy. Vegas and the bookmakers don't hand out money, and there is a reason books are starting to offer 5% juice these days, because they could probably make money off Joe Public without any juice at all. And if you think the bookmakers are trying to balance the money evenly on every game, think again. Read my poorly written, hard to follow article here. Gambling Theory Article 1 Now about 5 or 6 years ago you could pretty much make money by cruising around the internet checking out forums. Looking for the two or three games everybody "LOVES" for the week, finding guys with 8 posts declaring "LOCK of the century", and simply without doing one moment of research, bet against whoever it was they loved, and you hit damn near 60%. Now maybe things have changed, maybe the Sports Consultants that make the lines have some master plan, or just maybe they can't make lines like Roxy used to, but either way that is super dangerous these days. I've heard all kinds of theories, such as Vegas letting Joe Public Bettor have an easy winner on the Thursday night college game so he'll bet twice as much on Saturday and get it handed to him, etc. Public Favorites probably still didn't make anybody besides the books money last year, but the percentage that cashed seemed like alot more than in the past . And week one this year was definitely bad for the books. Yet I'd like to note that it seems like the "Public Favorite" saturday late games in the last two years seem to be quite the equalizer. See 09/04/04 BYU over ND, Fla Atl over Hawaii. 09/11/04 Arky over Texas, and Idaho over Utah State. I've come to use SportsInsights.com as one of my major handicapping tools. If you want to use public perception as a variable in your formula, nothing beats percentage of people betting on each side. The wagerlines of the world are great, but I feel alot more comfortable with true data from a sportsbook (that is if it's true data?). I guess it has made me money since I started using it. Actually I should say it has saved me money, as I never really use it to make a selection, but when one of my selections has way too many people on my side, I usually rethink my enthusiasm. This week there will be at least 10 to 15 games that basically will be pretty one sided on the betting action. So this week before I blow in and throw all my dough on the line I'm going to take a peek over the lemming in front of me to make sure there isn't a cliff. Oh yeah, bankroll jazz. Not counting the 5G's from the Belmonts so in the Red, but not for long. Starting Bankroll 3227.34 + 227.34 Since last update 6-9-1 -331.50 Ending Bankroll 2895.84 -104.16 Much more to come... Good Luck, Larry Chan posted @ 03:37 AM CST [link] |
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