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03/08/2005: "Let the beatings begin."

Well the sports predicting bizotch is back in the basement getting beat. After that Columbia pick I won't be prognosticating again this year. That game is proof alone that the algorithms are not only not valid they are just plain CRAP. So back to the drawing board. I'm not talking tweaking, I'm talking tear the piece of crap apart, throw years of code away and start over. I hate to say it, but I have some ideas for fixing it, so if I start now, maybe I can have something ready for next year. Good news I have enough data now to do multiple year back testing. Unlike before where I had no way of knowing if what I came up with was actually profitable, or just a fortuitous statistical anomaly. Anyway, I'm excited about some Baseball. I usually can make money with baseball by just following the smart money. Anyway, without a computer I can tell you everybody will love Pacific in the first round, so no value. The best play will be grabbing Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the first round if they make the tourny which they definitely should. Out.

Larry Chan

Replies: 16 Comments

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